Rupees 2 Won

Risk appetite, macro data and supply-and-demand statistics seemed to align for bullish crude traders. Yet despite begin given the fundamental green light (and notably still backed by impressive buying momentum over the past month), the active crude futures contract on the NYMEX was forced to retrace its morning thrust to a fresh, eight-week high just above $83.

 Student's Question:

Forex options risk reversals show distinct risk that the US Dollar may slip further against the Euro, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar through short-term trade. Indeed, traders have begun to aggressively bet on and hedge against further Euro strength via options, and recently one-sided speculative futures positioning shows distinct risk of near-term corrections.

Little has changed regarding the euro and Yen crosses. The CADJPY and AUDJPY have traded to new highs but closed off of the best levels of the day.

Upside potential remains for the CAD/JPY with a possible test of Fibonacci resistance, which is why the strategy is looking to take advantage of a potential retracement. The current bullish trend for the pair has been driven by continued demand for risky assets.

The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate at 0.25% in March as the central bank aim to balance the risks for the economy, and comments following the rate decision is likely to spark increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

For years, savvy traders have incorporated sentiment into their trading approach. 

9170 and 9300 are potential resistance levels for the AUDUSD. A drop below 9050 is needed in order to suggest that the larger trend has turned back down.

The New Zealand dollar extended the rally from earlier this week and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, while the Japanese Yen weakened across the board and retraced the two-day rally against the U.S. dollar.

The Canadian dollar continues to find support on strong domestic fundamentals and an increase in broader optimism. The USD/CAD has closed lower for eight straight days and is looking to end that streak today. However, we have seen daily volatility condense which has created an ideal scalping opportunity. The pair continues to trade along a descending support trend line which is limiting downside risks and providing a target level for traders.

The AUD/CHF remains in a strong uptrend with a new 20-month high being printed this morning.

The German trade balance surplus unexpectedly shrank in January from 13.4 billion to 8.0 billion as falling exports offset rising imports. Demand from abroad dropped by 6.3% against forecasts for a 0.5% improvement led by weakness from other Euro-zone members.

While most currencies have been consolidating or tracking lower against the buck on the day, Kiwi stands out and has actually outperformed, with no direct catalyst for the demand other than some pre-RBNZ volatility.

 The Euro tipped lower against the greenback on Wednesday, with the exchange rate slipping to a low of 1.3545 during the overnight trade, and the single-currency is likely to maintain the narrow range carried over from the previous week as policy makers in Europe aim to support the economies operating under the fixed-exchange rate system.